
 ===================================================================================================

 [ 1] TREE-RING SEARCH RADIUS       500        !PREDICTOR SEARCH RADIUS IN KILOMETERS                                                              
 [ 2] MINIMUM NUMBER OF SERIES        1        !MINIMUM NUMBER OF PREDICTORS TO FIND                                                               
 [ 3] TREE-RING PREWHITENING        0     0    !FIRST/LAST YEARS OF PREDICTOR PREWHITENING                                                         
 [ 4] CLIMATE PREWHITENING          0     0    !FIRST/LAST YEARS OF PREDICTAND PREWHITENING                                                        
 [ 5] CALIBRATION PERIOD         1975  2004    !FIRST/LAST YEARS OF CALIBRATION PERIOD                                                             
 [ 6] VERIFICATION PERIOD        1962  1974    !FIRST/LAST YEARS OF VERIFICATION PERIOD                                                            
 [ 7] SCREENING CRITERION            90        !SCREENING SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL (PERCENT)                                                             
 [ 8] HYPOTHESIS TEST TAILS           2        !SCREEN WITH TWO-TAILED HYPOTHESIS TEST                                                             

 CLIMATE VARIABLE FILE OPENED:       Partab_Monthly_Flows.txt                
 NUMBER OF CLIMATE GRID POINTS READ:        1
 NUMBER OF TREE-RING HEADERS READ:         39

 JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND                
 000011113               

 SEASON CONCURRENT WITH GROWTH TO BE RECONSTRUCTED:   9  5  9  5  MJJAS

 t=1 REGRESSION MODEL ORDER SELECTION CRITERION USED

 NO BACKTRACKING TO BEST VERIFIED, MOST PARSIMONIOUS, MODEL USED.

 ===================================================================================================

   FLOW GRID POINT     1:   LATITUDE  35.72N   LONGITUDE   74.63W  M5S FLOW
   SERIES HEADER:      35.717   74.633    Partab Bridge, Monthly Indus River, Pakistan                                 

   ==> FLOW DATA READ:   1962  2008    47 YEARS

   ==> SKEW BEFORE:   0.383  POWER:  1.000  K2 NORMALITY TEST:  1.4455  PROB: 0.0000  HINKLEY D: 0.0745

 GRID POINT:     1    74.63  35.72   24 SERIES FOUND WITHIN   500 KM

   ==> FIND AND READ TREE-RING DATA LOCATED WITHIN SEARCH RADIUS:  24
   ==> FILE !PK.crns  OPENED AND READ - ALL FILES TRUNCATED TO NC.GE.5

      1    1  1550  2005     45.37 km   PK  ASTORE-RAMA                   ssfstb                                                  
      2    2  1466  2005     45.37 km   PK  ASTORE-RAMA                   ssfstb                                                  
      3    3  1729  2007     82.04 km   PK  Babusar (Daimer District) 32  ssfstb                                                  
      9    4  1661  2006    271.57 km   PK  KALASH VALLEY BUMBURET        ssfstb                                                  
     10    5  1526  2006    271.57 km   PK  KALASH VALLEY BUMBURET        ssfstb                                                  
     11    6  1650  2006    262.93 km   PK  CHITRAL-GOL NP                ssfstb                                                  
     12    7  1321  2006    262.93 km   PK  CHITRAL-GOL NP                ssfstb                                                  
     13    8  1473  2005     76.35 km   PK  CHERA(GILGIT)                 ssfstb                                                  
     17    9  1557  2007     32.74 km   PK  Dashkin 3150M                 ssfstb                                                  
     18   10  1770  2007     23.76 km   PK  Gohar Abad (Diamer) 2650m     ssfstb                                                  
     19   11  1518  2006    248.29 km   PK  ISLAM BAIKY                   ssfstb                                                  
     20   12  1709  2007     58.66 km   PK  JOTI, CHILAS                  ssfstb                                                  
     21   13  1537  2008     30.05 km   PK  Jutial (Gilgit) 3250M         ssfstb                                                  
     22   14  1689  2008     44.69 km   PK  Kargah (Gilgit)               ssfstb                                                  
     27   15  1452  2007     55.38 km   PK  MUSHFAR GILGIT                ssfstb                                                  
     28   16  1744  2005    219.74 km   PK  MURREE-AYUBIA                 ssfstb                                                  
     29   17  1775  2007     26.41 km   PK  MUSHKIN                       ssfstb                                                  
     30   18  1778  2007     26.41 km   PK  MUSHKIN                       ssfstb                                                  
     31   19  1516  2009     63.07 km   PK  NALTAR GILGIT JUNIPERUS EXCE  ssfstb                                                  
     32   20  1465  2005     63.07 km   PK  NALTAR GILGIT                 ssfstb                                                  
     36   21  1800  2006    291.86 km   PK  Sheshan (Dangam District) 25  ssfstb                                                  
     37   22  1709  2008     99.85 km   PK  TANGIR (DIAMER) 2320M         ssfstb                                                  
     38   23  1673  2007    358.98 km   PK  Tangi-Kamdesh (Nuristan Prov  ssfstb                                                  
     39   24  1644  2005    260.23 km   PK  ZAIRAT CHITRAL                ssfstb                                                  

   ==> NUMBER OF SERIES FOUND AND READ IN:  24

   ==> SCREEN TREE RINGS FOR CORRELATION WITH FLOW -- M5S -- YEARS T,T+1 ONLY ARE CONSIDERED -- * PASS

 --------------- CORRELATIONS WITH FLOW ---------------------- PEARSON, SPEARMAN, ROBUST PEARSON ------------------
 MONTH  TREE-RING SITE                     <---     YR  T    --->   <---    YR T+1    --->   <---    YR T+2    --->
  M5S     1  ASTORE-RAMA      1975  2004    0.515*  0.462*  0.525*  -0.099  -0.097  -0.050    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S     2  ASTORE-RAMA      1975  2004   -0.021   0.042  -0.027   -0.215  -0.242  -0.230    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S     3  Babusar (Daimer  1975  2004    0.103   0.079   0.108   -0.261  -0.306* -0.278    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S     4  KALASH VALLEY B  1975  2004    0.462*  0.435*  0.515*   0.252   0.239   0.260    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S     5  KALASH VALLEY B  1975  2004    0.430*  0.362*  0.404*   0.230   0.175   0.251    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S     6  CHITRAL-GOL NP   1975  2004    0.491*  0.432*  0.506*   0.178   0.135   0.184    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S     7  CHITRAL-GOL NP   1975  2004    0.135   0.101   0.093    0.056   0.051   0.044    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S     8  CHERA(GILGIT)    1975  2004    0.526*  0.475*  0.647*   0.044  -0.003   0.052    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S     9  Dashkin 3150M    1975  2004    0.425*  0.388*  0.550*   0.086   0.123   0.205    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S    10  Gohar Abad (Dia  1975  2004    0.134   0.054   0.144   -0.139  -0.158  -0.137    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S    11  ISLAM BAIKY      1975  2004    0.276   0.193   0.291    0.038   0.067   0.112    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S    12  JOTI, CHILAS     1975  2004    0.174   0.052   0.175   -0.174  -0.179  -0.174    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S    13  Jutial (Gilgit)  1975  2004    0.447*  0.383*  0.478*  -0.117  -0.127  -0.102    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S    14  Kargah (Gilgit)  1975  2004    0.561*  0.475*  0.563*   0.102   0.031   0.106    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S    15  MUSHFAR GILGIT   1975  2004    0.373*  0.354*  0.368*  -0.199  -0.225  -0.186    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S    16  MURREE-AYUBIA    1975  2004    0.013  -0.006   0.011   -0.330* -0.417* -0.400*   0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S    17  MUSHKIN          1975  2004    0.311*  0.259   0.360*  -0.059  -0.019  -0.049    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S    18  MUSHKIN          1975  2004    0.429*  0.450*  0.449*   0.011   0.029   0.017    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S    19  NALTAR GILGIT J  1975  2004    0.292   0.274   0.308*   0.159   0.142   0.184    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S    20  NALTAR GILGIT    1975  2004    0.461*  0.383*  0.360*  -0.358* -0.371* -0.333*   0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S    21  Sheshan (Dangam  1975  2004    0.358*  0.341*  0.380*  -0.264  -0.295  -0.280    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S    22  TANGIR (DIAMER)  1975  2004    0.311*  0.298   0.313*  -0.183  -0.168  -0.163    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S    23  Tangi-Kamdesh (  1975  2004    0.198   0.167   0.207    0.025  -0.010   0.044    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_
  M5S    24  ZAIRAT CHITRAL   1975  2004    0.403*  0.348*  0.386*   0.199   0.239   0.233    0.000_  0.000_  0.000_

   ==> SIGNIFICANT TREE-RING VARIABLES FOUND (ONLY THOSE WITH THREE *):  15  AT 90.0 % LEVEL  2 TAILED


   ==> DETERMINE THE NUMBER OF NESTED REGRESSION MODELS

   ==> NUMBER OF NESTED REGRESSION MODELS:  13
       / 1800  2004 / 1780  2004 / 1750  2004 / 1690  2004 / 1670  2004 / 1650  2004 /
       / 1560  2004 / 1550  2004 / 1540  2004 / 1530  2004 / 1480  2004 / 1470  2004 /
       / 1452  2004 /

   ==> M5S  MODEL    1  1800  2004   205 YEARS   CALIBRATION PERIOD:  1975  2004

               ORDER   EIGENVALUE   VARIANCE   CUMULATIVE   GUIOT PVP
                   1       7.3944     49.2961     49.2961      7.3944
                   2       2.3799     15.8658     65.1619     17.5978
                   3       1.2882      8.5881     73.7500     22.6697
                   4       1.0152      6.7683     80.5184     23.0154
                   5       0.7206      4.8042     85.3225     16.5855
                   6       0.6116      4.0771     89.3996     10.1431
                   7       0.4922      3.2816     92.6812      4.9928
                   8       0.4021      2.6806     95.3618      2.0076
                   9       0.2604      1.7357     97.0975      0.5227
                  10       0.1358      0.9055     98.0030      0.0710
                  11       0.1298      0.8654     98.8684      0.0092
                  12       0.0815      0.5434     99.4119      0.0008
                  13       0.0424      0.2824     99.6943      0.0000
                  14       0.0354      0.2359     99.9302      0.0000
                  15       0.0105      0.0698    100.0000      0.0000

                          EIGENVALUE ORDER CUTOFF CHOSEN:   4

                             CALIBRATION PERIOD: 1975 2004

 STEP  VAR   PCVAR    CORR   TSTAT     RSQ    CUM    ARSQ     ERE    CVRE     AIC      BIC
 ----  ---   -----    ----   -----     ---    ---    ----     ---    ----     ---      ---
   1    1     49.3   0.590    3.87*  0.348  0.348*  0.325*  0.303*  0.309*   -8.85*   -6.05*
   2    4      6.8  -0.382   -2.19*  0.146  0.495*  0.457*  0.422*  0.437*  -14.47*  -10.26*
   3    2     15.9  -0.243   -1.33*  0.059  0.554*  0.502*  0.454*  0.467*  -16.20*  -10.59*
   4    3      8.6  -0.169   -0.91   0.029  0.582*  0.515*  0.453   0.453   -16.18    -9.17 

  SELECTED REGRESSION MODEL ORDER:  3     PERCENT VARIANCE EXPLAINED:  58.2 PERCENT

                             VERIFICATION PERIOD: 1962 1974

                                PEARSON    ROBUST
                    STEP  VAR     RSQ       RSQ       RE        CE
                    ----  ---    -----     -----     -----     -----
                      1    1     0.229*    0.304*    0.238*    0.205*
                      2    4     0.266*    0.260*    0.277*    0.246*
                      3    2     0.449*    0.445*    0.431*    0.406*

            FINAL WHITE RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.554       0.494         0.449        0.445       0.431      0.406

             FINAL RED RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.554       0.494         0.449        0.445       0.431      0.406

   ==> M5S  MODEL    2  1780  2004   225 YEARS   CALIBRATION PERIOD:  1975  2004

               ORDER   EIGENVALUE   VARIANCE   CUMULATIVE   GUIOT PVP
                   1       6.9846     49.8903     49.8903      6.9846
                   2       2.3426     16.7327     66.6230     16.3621
                   3       1.2530      8.9497     75.5728     20.5011
                   4       0.9905      7.0750     82.6477     20.3063
                   5       0.7200      5.1426     87.7904     14.6199
                   6       0.5038      3.5989     91.3892      7.3661
                   7       0.4041      2.8868     94.2760      2.9770
                   8       0.3393      2.4234     96.6995      1.0100
                   9       0.1514      1.0816     97.7811      0.1530
                  10       0.1356      0.9683     98.7494      0.0207
                  11       0.0820      0.5858     99.3351      0.0017
                  12       0.0464      0.3312     99.6663      0.0001
                  13       0.0360      0.2574     99.9238      0.0000
                  14       0.0107      0.0762    100.0000      0.0000

                          EIGENVALUE ORDER CUTOFF CHOSEN:   3

                             CALIBRATION PERIOD: 1975 2004

 STEP  VAR   PCVAR    CORR   TSTAT     RSQ    CUM    ARSQ     ERE    CVRE     AIC      BIC
 ----  ---   -----    ----   -----     ---    ---    ----     ---    ----     ---      ---
   1    1     49.9   0.590    3.87*  0.348  0.348*  0.325*  0.303*  0.309*   -8.85*   -6.04*
   2    2     16.7  -0.264   -1.45*  0.070  0.418*  0.375*  0.335*  0.336*  -10.25*   -6.05*
   3    3      8.9  -0.240   -1.31*  0.058  0.476*  0.415*  0.359*  0.352*  -11.38*   -5.77 

  SELECTED REGRESSION MODEL ORDER:  3     PERCENT VARIANCE EXPLAINED:  47.6 PERCENT

                             VERIFICATION PERIOD: 1962 1974

                                PEARSON    ROBUST
                    STEP  VAR     RSQ       RSQ       RE        CE
                    ----  ---    -----     -----     -----     -----
                      1    1     0.197*    0.348*    0.216*    0.182*
                      2    2     0.442*    0.763*    0.340*    0.312*
                      3    3     0.589*    0.595*    0.495*    0.473*

            FINAL WHITE RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.476       0.395         0.589        0.595       0.495      0.473

             FINAL RED RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.476       0.395         0.589        0.595       0.495      0.473

   ==> M5S  MODEL    3  1750  2004   255 YEARS   CALIBRATION PERIOD:  1975  2004

               ORDER   EIGENVALUE   VARIANCE   CUMULATIVE   GUIOT PVP
                   1       6.5545     50.4195     50.4195      6.5545
                   2       2.2240     17.1079     67.5274     14.5775
                   3       1.1583      8.9101     76.4375     16.8853
                   4       0.9579      7.3685     83.8060     16.1746
                   5       0.6897      5.3054     89.1115     11.1557
                   6       0.5021      3.8620     92.9735      5.6008
                   7       0.3772      2.9013     95.8748      2.1125
                   8       0.1777      1.3670     97.2418      0.3754
                   9       0.1477      1.1362     98.3780      0.0554
                  10       0.0868      0.6677     99.0457      0.0048
                  11       0.0741      0.5701     99.6157      0.0004
                  12       0.0368      0.2828     99.8985      0.0000
                  13       0.0132      0.1015    100.0000      0.0000

                          EIGENVALUE ORDER CUTOFF CHOSEN:   3

                             CALIBRATION PERIOD: 1975 2004

 STEP  VAR   PCVAR    CORR   TSTAT     RSQ    CUM    ARSQ     ERE    CVRE     AIC      BIC
 ----  ---   -----    ----   -----     ---    ---    ----     ---    ----     ---      ---
   1    1     50.4   0.590    3.86*  0.348  0.348*  0.324*  0.303*  0.309*   -8.82*   -6.01*
   2    3      8.9  -0.283   -1.56*  0.080  0.428*  0.385*  0.346*  0.346*  -10.75*   -6.55*
   3    2     17.1  -0.263   -1.44*  0.069  0.497*  0.439*  0.384*  0.379*  -12.60*   -7.00*

  SELECTED REGRESSION MODEL ORDER:  3     PERCENT VARIANCE EXPLAINED:  49.7 PERCENT

                             VERIFICATION PERIOD: 1962 1974

                                PEARSON    ROBUST
                    STEP  VAR     RSQ       RSQ       RE        CE
                    ----  ---    -----     -----     -----     -----
                      1    1     0.215*    0.489*    0.227*    0.193*
                      2    3     0.414*    0.752*    0.345*    0.317*
                      3    2     0.613*    0.766*    0.527*    0.507*

            FINAL WHITE RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.497       0.421         0.613        0.766       0.527      0.507

             FINAL RED RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.497       0.421         0.613        0.766       0.527      0.507

   ==> M5S  MODEL    4  1690  2004   315 YEARS   CALIBRATION PERIOD:  1975  2004

               ORDER   EIGENVALUE   VARIANCE   CUMULATIVE   GUIOT PVP
                   1       6.5186     54.3214     54.3214      6.5186
                   2       1.8766     15.6384     69.9598     12.2328
                   3       1.1577      9.6476     79.6075     14.1621
                   4       0.9364      7.8036     87.4111     13.2619
                   5       0.5625      4.6871     92.0982      7.4592
                   6       0.4004      3.3370     95.4352      2.9870
                   7       0.1815      1.5126     96.9478      0.5422
                   8       0.1515      1.2629     98.2107      0.0822
                   9       0.0872      0.7267     98.9374      0.0072
                  10       0.0743      0.6188     99.5562      0.0005
                  11       0.0369      0.3074     99.8636      0.0000
                  12       0.0164      0.1364    100.0000      0.0000

                          EIGENVALUE ORDER CUTOFF CHOSEN:   3

                             CALIBRATION PERIOD: 1975 2004

 STEP  VAR   PCVAR    CORR   TSTAT     RSQ    CUM    ARSQ     ERE    CVRE     AIC      BIC
 ----  ---   -----    ----   -----     ---    ---    ----     ---    ----     ---      ---
   1    1     54.3   0.581    3.78*  0.338  0.338*  0.314*  0.292*  0.298*   -8.37*   -5.57*
   2    3      9.6  -0.277   -1.53*  0.077  0.415*  0.371*  0.331*  0.331*  -10.07*   -5.86*
   3    2     15.6   0.265    1.45*  0.070  0.485*  0.425*  0.370*  0.365*  -11.90*   -6.29*

  SELECTED REGRESSION MODEL ORDER:  3     PERCENT VARIANCE EXPLAINED:  48.5 PERCENT

                             VERIFICATION PERIOD: 1962 1974

                                PEARSON    ROBUST
                    STEP  VAR     RSQ       RSQ       RE        CE
                    ----  ---    -----     -----     -----     -----
                      1    1     0.198*    0.322*    0.215*    0.181*
                      2    3     0.392*    0.773*    0.323*    0.293*
                      3    2     0.562*    0.732*    0.502*    0.481*

            FINAL WHITE RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.485       0.407         0.562        0.732       0.502      0.481

             FINAL RED RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.485       0.407         0.562        0.732       0.502      0.481

   ==> M5S  MODEL    5  1670  2004   335 YEARS   CALIBRATION PERIOD:  1975  2004

               ORDER   EIGENVALUE   VARIANCE   CUMULATIVE   GUIOT PVP
                   1       5.8741     53.4010     53.4010      5.8741
                   2       1.7600     16.0002     69.4012     10.3386
                   3       1.1308     10.2799     79.6811     11.6907
                   4       0.9073      8.2483     87.9294     10.6071
                   5       0.5122      4.6561     92.5854      5.4326
                   6       0.3765      3.4229     96.0084      2.0455
                   7       0.1680      1.5277     97.5361      0.3437
                   8       0.1226      1.1146     98.6506      0.0421
                   9       0.0825      0.7500     99.4007      0.0035
                  10       0.0483      0.4391     99.8398      0.0002
                  11       0.0176      0.1602    100.0000      0.0000

                          EIGENVALUE ORDER CUTOFF CHOSEN:   3

                             CALIBRATION PERIOD: 1975 2004

 STEP  VAR   PCVAR    CORR   TSTAT     RSQ    CUM    ARSQ     ERE    CVRE     AIC      BIC
 ----  ---   -----    ----   -----     ---    ---    ----     ---    ----     ---      ---
   1    1     53.4   0.563    3.60*  0.317  0.317*  0.292*  0.269*  0.277*   -7.42*   -4.61*
   2    3     10.3  -0.350   -1.98*  0.123  0.439*  0.398*  0.359*  0.365*  -11.36*   -7.15*
   3    2     16.0   0.293    1.62*  0.086  0.525*  0.470*  0.419*  0.420*  -14.34*   -8.73*

  SELECTED REGRESSION MODEL ORDER:  3     PERCENT VARIANCE EXPLAINED:  52.5 PERCENT

                             VERIFICATION PERIOD: 1962 1974

                                PEARSON    ROBUST
                    STEP  VAR     RSQ       RSQ       RE        CE
                    ----  ---    -----     -----     -----     -----
                      1    1     0.148*    0.296*    0.179*    0.143*
                      2    3     0.379*    0.897*    0.316*    0.287*
                      3    2     0.552*    0.741*    0.523*    0.503*

            FINAL WHITE RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.525       0.455         0.552        0.741       0.523      0.503

             FINAL RED RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.525       0.455         0.552        0.741       0.523      0.503

   ==> M5S  MODEL    6  1650  2004   355 YEARS   CALIBRATION PERIOD:  1975  2004

               ORDER   EIGENVALUE   VARIANCE   CUMULATIVE   GUIOT PVP
                   1       5.0760     50.7596     50.7596      5.0760
                   2       1.6923     16.9227     67.6822      8.5899
                   3       1.1301     11.3012     78.9834      9.7076
                   4       0.8236      8.2357     87.2191      7.9948
                   5       0.5040      5.0401     92.2592      4.0295
                   6       0.3705      3.7052     95.9644      1.4930
                   7       0.1637      1.6365     97.6009      0.2443
                   8       0.1225      1.2249     98.8258      0.0299
                   9       0.0691      0.6913     99.5170      0.0021
                  10       0.0483      0.4830    100.0000      0.0001

                          EIGENVALUE ORDER CUTOFF CHOSEN:   3

                             CALIBRATION PERIOD: 1975 2004

 STEP  VAR   PCVAR    CORR   TSTAT     RSQ    CUM    ARSQ     ERE    CVRE     AIC      BIC
 ----  ---   -----    ----   -----     ---    ---    ----     ---    ----     ---      ---
   1    1     50.8   0.574    3.71*  0.329  0.329*  0.305*  0.283*  0.290*   -7.99*   -5.19*
   2    3     11.3  -0.356   -2.02*  0.127  0.456*  0.416*  0.378*  0.384*  -12.28*   -8.08*
   3    2     16.9   0.269    1.48*  0.072  0.529*  0.474*  0.423*  0.427*  -14.56*   -8.96*

  SELECTED REGRESSION MODEL ORDER:  3     PERCENT VARIANCE EXPLAINED:  52.9 PERCENT

                             VERIFICATION PERIOD: 1962 1974

                                PEARSON    ROBUST
                    STEP  VAR     RSQ       RSQ       RE        CE
                    ----  ---    -----     -----     -----     -----
                      1    1     0.179*    0.304*    0.201*    0.167*
                      2    3     0.419*    0.876*    0.361*    0.333*
                      3    2     0.564*    0.696*    0.531*    0.511*

            FINAL WHITE RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.529       0.459         0.564        0.696       0.531      0.511

             FINAL RED RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.529       0.459         0.564        0.696       0.531      0.511

   ==> M5S  MODEL    7  1560  2004   445 YEARS   CALIBRATION PERIOD:  1975  2004

               ORDER   EIGENVALUE   VARIANCE   CUMULATIVE   GUIOT PVP
                   1       4.0567     50.7088     50.7088      4.0567
                   2       1.3565     16.9567     67.6655      5.5031
                   3       0.8745     10.9308     78.5963      4.8122
                   4       0.7498      9.3721     87.9684      3.6080
                   5       0.3978      4.9720     92.9404      1.4351
                   6       0.3618      4.5230     97.4633      0.5193
                   7       0.1383      1.7290     99.1923      0.0718
                   8       0.0646      0.8077    100.0000      0.0046

                          EIGENVALUE ORDER CUTOFF CHOSEN:   2

                             CALIBRATION PERIOD: 1975 2004

 STEP  VAR   PCVAR    CORR   TSTAT     RSQ    CUM    ARSQ     ERE    CVRE     AIC      BIC
 ----  ---   -----    ----   -----     ---    ---    ----     ---    ----     ---      ---
   1    1     50.7   0.570    3.67*  0.325  0.325*  0.301*  0.278*  0.279*   -7.80*   -4.99*
   2    2     17.0  -0.378   -2.16*  0.143  0.468*  0.429*  0.392*  0.391*  -12.95*   -8.75*

  SELECTED REGRESSION MODEL ORDER:  2     PERCENT VARIANCE EXPLAINED:  46.8 PERCENT

                             VERIFICATION PERIOD: 1962 1974

                                PEARSON    ROBUST
                    STEP  VAR     RSQ       RSQ       RE        CE
                    ----  ---    -----     -----     -----     -----
                      1    1     0.271*    0.665*    0.241*    0.208*
                      2    2     0.555*    0.695*    0.481*    0.458*

            FINAL WHITE RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.468       0.383         0.555        0.695       0.481      0.458

             FINAL RED RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.468       0.383         0.555        0.695       0.481      0.458

   ==> M5S  MODEL    8  1550  2004   455 YEARS   CALIBRATION PERIOD:  1975  2004

               ORDER   EIGENVALUE   VARIANCE   CUMULATIVE   GUIOT PVP
                   1       3.3755     48.2212     48.2212      3.3755
                   2       1.3503     19.2898     67.5109      4.5579
                   3       0.7831     11.1879     78.6988      3.5695
                   4       0.7170     10.2421     88.9409      2.5591
                   5       0.3838      5.4834     94.4243      0.9823
                   6       0.3159      4.5127     98.9370      0.3103
                   7       0.0744      1.0630    100.0000      0.0231

                          EIGENVALUE ORDER CUTOFF CHOSEN:   2

                             CALIBRATION PERIOD: 1975 2004

 STEP  VAR   PCVAR    CORR   TSTAT     RSQ    CUM    ARSQ     ERE    CVRE     AIC      BIC
 ----  ---   -----    ----   -----     ---    ---    ----     ---    ----     ---      ---
   1    1     48.2   0.585    3.81*  0.342  0.342*  0.318*  0.296*  0.302*   -8.55*   -5.74*
   2    2     19.3  -0.362   -2.05*  0.131  0.473*  0.434*  0.397*  0.401*  -13.21*   -9.00*

  SELECTED REGRESSION MODEL ORDER:  2     PERCENT VARIANCE EXPLAINED:  47.3 PERCENT

                             VERIFICATION PERIOD: 1962 1974

                                PEARSON    ROBUST
                    STEP  VAR     RSQ       RSQ       RE        CE
                    ----  ---    -----     -----     -----     -----
                      1    1     0.300*    0.669*    0.294*    0.264*
                      2    2     0.535*    0.667*    0.499*    0.477*

            FINAL WHITE RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.473       0.391         0.535        0.667       0.499      0.477

             FINAL RED RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.473       0.391         0.535        0.667       0.499      0.477

   ==> M5S  MODEL    9  1540  2004   465 YEARS   CALIBRATION PERIOD:  1975  2004

               ORDER   EIGENVALUE   VARIANCE   CUMULATIVE   GUIOT PVP
                   1       3.0999     51.6642     51.6642      3.0999
                   2       1.2840     21.4003     73.0645      3.9803
                   3       0.7450     12.4158     85.4804      2.9651
                   4       0.4134      6.8905     92.3709      1.2259
                   5       0.3283      5.4720     97.8429      0.4025
                   6       0.1294      2.1570    100.0000      0.0521

                          EIGENVALUE ORDER CUTOFF CHOSEN:   2

                             CALIBRATION PERIOD: 1975 2004

 STEP  VAR   PCVAR    CORR   TSTAT     RSQ    CUM    ARSQ     ERE    CVRE     AIC      BIC
 ----  ---   -----    ----   -----     ---    ---    ----     ---    ----     ---      ---
   1    1     51.7   0.537    3.37*  0.288  0.288*  0.263*  0.239*  0.241*   -6.20*   -3.40*
   2    2     21.4  -0.373   -2.13*  0.139  0.427*  0.385*  0.345*  0.343*  -10.72*   -6.52*

  SELECTED REGRESSION MODEL ORDER:  2     PERCENT VARIANCE EXPLAINED:  42.7 PERCENT

                             VERIFICATION PERIOD: 1962 1974

                                PEARSON    ROBUST
                    STEP  VAR     RSQ       RSQ       RE        CE
                    ----  ---    -----     -----     -----     -----
                      1    1     0.304*    0.809*    0.285*    0.254*
                      2    2     0.625*    0.774*    0.548*    0.528*

            FINAL WHITE RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.427       0.330         0.625        0.774       0.548      0.528

             FINAL RED RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.427       0.330         0.625        0.774       0.548      0.528

   ==> M5S  MODEL   10  1530  2004   475 YEARS   CALIBRATION PERIOD:  1975  2004

               ORDER   EIGENVALUE   VARIANCE   CUMULATIVE   GUIOT PVP
                   1       2.2586     45.1730     45.1730      2.2586
                   2       1.2827     25.6535     70.8265      2.8971
                   3       0.7397     14.7944     85.6209      2.1431
                   4       0.3954      7.9073     93.5282      0.8473
                   5       0.3236      6.4718    100.0000      0.2742

                          EIGENVALUE ORDER CUTOFF CHOSEN:   2

                             CALIBRATION PERIOD: 1975 2004

 STEP  VAR   PCVAR    CORR   TSTAT     RSQ    CUM    ARSQ     ERE    CVRE     AIC      BIC
 ----  ---   -----    ----   -----     ---    ---    ----     ---    ----     ---      ---
   1    1     45.2   0.565    3.62*  0.319  0.319*  0.295*  0.272*  0.279*   -7.53*   -4.72*
   2    2     25.7  -0.357   -2.02*  0.127  0.446*  0.405*  0.367*  0.366*  -11.74*   -7.53*

  SELECTED REGRESSION MODEL ORDER:  2     PERCENT VARIANCE EXPLAINED:  44.6 PERCENT

                             VERIFICATION PERIOD: 1962 1974

                                PEARSON    ROBUST
                    STEP  VAR     RSQ       RSQ       RE        CE
                    ----  ---    -----     -----     -----     -----
                      1    1     0.303*    0.410*    0.293*    0.262*
                      2    2     0.622*    0.696*    0.547*    0.528*

            FINAL WHITE RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.446       0.354         0.622        0.696       0.547      0.528

             FINAL RED RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.446       0.354         0.622        0.696       0.547      0.528

   ==> M5S  MODEL   11  1480  2004   525 YEARS   CALIBRATION PERIOD:  1975  2004

               ORDER   EIGENVALUE   VARIANCE   CUMULATIVE   GUIOT PVP
                   1       1.9583     48.9565     48.9565      1.9583
                   2       1.2007     30.0164     78.9729      2.3512
                   3       0.5121     12.8026     91.7755      1.2041
                   4       0.3290      8.2245    100.0000      0.3961

                          EIGENVALUE ORDER CUTOFF CHOSEN:   2

                             CALIBRATION PERIOD: 1975 2004

 STEP  VAR   PCVAR    CORR   TSTAT     RSQ    CUM    ARSQ     ERE    CVRE     AIC      BIC
 ----  ---   -----    ----   -----     ---    ---    ----     ---    ----     ---      ---
   1    1     49.0   0.556    3.54*  0.309  0.309*  0.284*  0.261*  0.269*   -7.07*   -4.27*
   2    2     30.0  -0.337   -1.89*  0.113  0.422*  0.379*  0.339*  0.347*  -10.44*   -6.24*

  SELECTED REGRESSION MODEL ORDER:  2     PERCENT VARIANCE EXPLAINED:  42.2 PERCENT

                             VERIFICATION PERIOD: 1962 1974

                                PEARSON    ROBUST
                    STEP  VAR     RSQ       RSQ       RE        CE
                    ----  ---    -----     -----     -----     -----
                      1    1     0.466*    0.464*    0.384*    0.358*
                      2    2     0.683*    0.818*    0.579*    0.561*

            FINAL WHITE RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.422       0.320         0.683        0.818       0.579      0.561

             FINAL RED RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.422       0.320         0.683        0.818       0.579      0.561

   ==> M5S  MODEL   12  1470  2004   535 YEARS   CALIBRATION PERIOD:  1975  2004

               ORDER   EIGENVALUE   VARIANCE   CUMULATIVE   GUIOT PVP
                   1       1.3105     43.6831     43.6831      1.3105
                   2       1.1917     39.7242     83.4074      1.5618
                   3       0.4978     16.5926    100.0000      0.7774

                          EIGENVALUE ORDER CUTOFF CHOSEN:   2

                             CALIBRATION PERIOD: 1975 2004

 STEP  VAR   PCVAR    CORR   TSTAT     RSQ    CUM    ARSQ     ERE    CVRE     AIC      BIC
 ----  ---   -----    ----   -----     ---    ---    ----     ---    ----     ---      ---
   1    1     43.7   0.561    3.58*  0.315  0.315*  0.290*  0.267*  0.290*   -7.33*   -4.53*
   2    2     39.7  -0.206   -1.12*  0.043  0.357*  0.310*  0.265   0.281    -7.26    -3.05 

  SELECTED REGRESSION MODEL ORDER:  2     PERCENT VARIANCE EXPLAINED:  35.7 PERCENT

                             VERIFICATION PERIOD: 1962 1974

                                PEARSON    ROBUST
                    STEP  VAR     RSQ       RSQ       RE        CE
                    ----  ---    -----     -----     -----     -----
                      1    1     0.516*    0.534*    0.433*    0.409*
                      2    2     0.612*    0.768*    0.517*    0.496*

            FINAL WHITE RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.357       0.240         0.612        0.768       0.517      0.496

             FINAL RED RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.357       0.240         0.612        0.768       0.517      0.496

   ==> M5S  MODEL   13  1452  2004   553 YEARS   CALIBRATION PERIOD:  1975  2004

               ORDER   EIGENVALUE   VARIANCE   CUMULATIVE   GUIOT PVP
                   1       1.0000    100.0000    100.0000      1.0000

                          EIGENVALUE ORDER CUTOFF CHOSEN:   1

                             CALIBRATION PERIOD: 1975 2004

 STEP  VAR   PCVAR    CORR   TSTAT     RSQ    CUM    ARSQ     ERE    CVRE     AIC      BIC
 ----  ---   -----    ----   -----     ---    ---    ----     ---    ----     ---      ---
   1    1    100.0   0.373    2.13*  0.139  0.139*  0.108*  0.080*  0.096*   -0.50*    2.31 

  SELECTED REGRESSION MODEL ORDER:  1     PERCENT VARIANCE EXPLAINED:  13.9 PERCENT

                             VERIFICATION PERIOD: 1962 1974

                                PEARSON    ROBUST
                    STEP  VAR     RSQ       RSQ       RE        CE
                    ----  ---    -----     -----     -----     -----
                      1    1     0.167*    0.037     0.165*    0.129*

            FINAL WHITE RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.139       0.037         0.167        0.037       0.165      0.129

             FINAL RED RECONSTRUCTION CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS

          CALIB RSQ   CALIB CVRE   VERIF RSQ1   VERIF RSQ2   VERIF RE   VERIF CE
            0.139       0.037         0.167        0.037       0.165      0.129
